Manchester City cannot stop winning football matches. Eight games played, seven wins and one defeat, still top of the Premier League, and already looking like the team to beat again.
Enzo Maresca’s side are doing their best to behave as though nothing has changed. And yet none of it matters as much as what is happening off the pitch.
An independent commission has already found City guilty of 114 out of 115 Premier League financial charges, between 2009–10 and 2017–18.
While the club maintains its innocence and has lodged an appeal, the possibility of a heavy points deduction, or even relegation to the Championship, is no longer fantasy.
For now, it’s business as usual. Still unbeaten in the league and playing Champions League football, City still have realistic ambitions of winning it for a second time. Capable of beating anyone on their day.
But here is the question every fan, pundit and punter is asking. Could City win the Champions League, qualify for next season’s competition as holders, and still be playing in the second tier of English football at the same time?
It sounds absurd. It might also be possible. City’s relegation odds have already been slashed across football betting sites, a sign that the market takes the threat seriously even with the club sitting top of the table.
Winning the league is no longer a guarantee of European football next season. Winning the Champions League might be the only route that is fully in their control.
So how would it all actually work? Here is what we know about the possibility of Manchester City winning the Champions League and facing the drop.
What Happens If City Are Relegated?
If City win the Champions League this season, they would automatically qualify for next year’s edition as titleholders, regardless of where they finish domestically or whether the Premier League sends them down.
Betting odds have City stood at 6/4 to face relegation, jumping the likes of Ipswich Town and Fulham for the drop.
It also boosts the morale of bottom sides such as Coventry City, knowing that scrapping for an 18th place finish just might be enough to stay up on a technicality.
If it happens, there would have to be a massive player exodus at City. There are reportedly no relegation clauses in players’ contracts, meaning the club would have to dramatically cut costs and be forced to sell their star men.
It’s hard to imagine Erling Haaland, Gianluigi Donnarumma or Ruben Dias sticking around to play weekly football in the Championship.
A squad built to win the biggest prize in club football is not there to grind out Tuesday nights at Preston.
Maresca could stick around, though. He guided Leicester City to the Championship title and possesses the experience to guide a team out of the second tier.
Can City Still Play in the Champions League?
City can still play in the Champions League this season while their financial case is being dealt with.
Maresca faces a tough league phase which includes defending champions Paris Saint-Germain and La Liga winners Barcelona before they even think about Madrid next June.
The bigger question is what happens next season. A points deduction could leave them too low in the Premier League to qualify for Europe through their league position.
Winning the Champions League could offer another route. The holders automatically qualify for the following season’s competition, although City would still need to meet UEFA’s entry and licensing rules.
That leaves open the remarkable possibility of City winning Europe’s biggest prize, being relegated to the Championship and still playing in the Champions League the following season, with access to the competition’s substantial financial rewards.
Has a Championship Side Ever Played in Europe?
English clubs have competed in European football while playing outside the top flight, but no Championship side has played in the Champions League.
Several English clubs have played in other European competitions while in the second division, usually by winning the FA Cup.
Ipswich, Millwall, Birmingham, Wigan, Sunderland, Southampton and West Ham have all done it at various points.
So the idea of a second-tier English club in Europe is not unprecedented. The idea of one doing it in the Champions League, absolutely is.
Could Man City be stripped of their Champions League trophy?
City beat Inter Milan 1-0 in Istanbul in 2023 to win their first Champions League and complete the treble. But could the club lose that trophy if the Premier League case ends in severe punishment?
UEFA also has time limits for dealing with certain offences, although exceptions apply to serious cases such as match-fixing and corruption.
For now, there is no confirmed decision to take City’s Champions League trophy away, and the Premier League case does not automatically put their 2023 triumph at risk.
Would the EFL Even Accept City?
Here is the wildest part. There is no obligation for the EFL to accept City as a new member if they are relegated.
If the EFL refused, City could in theory be forced even further down the pyramid, potentially into the National League.
Picture it. A club that swept every trophy in English football travelling to Morecambe and Boreham Wood on a Tuesday night. It sounds like a bad joke. It is also not entirely outside the realm of possibility.
The Verdict: A Season Played in Two Worlds
Whatever happens with the appeal, City’s season now exists in two parallel realities. On the pitch, they are the best team in the country, chasing a second Champions League crown with a squad built for exactly this kind of pressure.
Off it, they are a club awaiting a sentence that could reshape English football’s entire structure.
The strange truth is that neither reality can be resolved by results alone. Winning in Madrid would settle the European question but do nothing for the domestic one.
A favourable appeal would settle the league future but leave the Champions League campaign to stand on its own merits.
For now, City can only control what is in front of them: win games, keep the squad together, and let the lawyers handle the rest.
Whether that is enough to keep them in both competitions next season is a question even the bookies seem unsure how to price.
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