Manchester City have a huge task on their hands in the Champions League, but it is not impossible, according to the Opta Supercomputer.
The day has arrived for Manchester City to lock horns once more with Real Madrid and any chance of a comeback feels almost non-existent.
Man City showed no signs of improvement at the weekend, drawing 1-1 with a relegation-scrapping West Ham team.
However, anything can happen in the Champions League and if City can take an early lead, that would have the potential to disrupt Real Madrid’s momentum.
Opta Supercomputer gives Man City a 13.4 per cent chance of success
According to the Opta Supercomputer, the stats are not lookin great for Man City, whether this is regarding Real Madrid’s record with a big lead, or Pep Guardiola’s when it comes to deficits.
Despite this, the hosts are highly likely to win the individual fixture and there is still a small chance of progression to the quarter-finals.
Opta author David Segar wrote: “Another tie where one team are looking to overturn a three-goal deficit.
“It’s hard enough against anyone, but especially Real Madrid, who haven’t been eliminated in any of the previous 35 ties in major European competition in which they have held a 3+ goal lead after the first leg.
“On top of that, Pep Guardiola hasn’t progressed from a Champions League knockout tie after losing the first leg since he was at Bayern Munich (2014-15 quarter-finals vs FC Porto – 7-4 on agg).
“He has failed to advance in each of the five instances since then, and in all three with Manchester City.”
Speaking on the likelihood of a Real Madrid triumph, Segar continued: “Federico Valverde’s hat-trick in the Bernabéu has put Real Madrid in a very strong position against City, and Madrid completed the job in 86.6% of simulations.
“Guardiola’s men are heavily-fancied to win the second leg in Manchester on Tuesday by the supercomputer (58.5%), while Real Madrid earned another victory in 22.1% of sims.
“Los Blancos don’t need to win on the night, of course, but Álvaro Arbeloa would become the first Madrid boss to win each of his four Champions League knockout-stage matches if they do,” he added.”
Man City have to possess the right mindset
Whether City win on the night is irrelevant in the grand scheme of things, unless they can go on to win the tie as a whole.
In order to do this, Pep Guardiola’s team have to look at the aggregate scoreline and recognise when a goal is required.
Even if they lead by two goals at the Etihad Stadium, Real Madrid are still one up overall, so even more chances have to be created and finished.
It will be a hard night for Man City, maybe too hard. However, even a victory without progression could go a long way in helping the side push forward for what is left of this season, which is important considering the Carabao Cup final is on Sunday.
