City remain committed to dominating possession at a time when other Premier League teams are showing an increasing willingness to play without the ball.
Across the opening 50 league matches this season, teams recording at least 60% possession have won only 36.4% of those games. In 2023-24, the figure was 53.5%.
It is far too early to declare possession football finished, but the numbers highlighted by BBC Sport point towards an interesting early-season shift. Man City remain firmly on the other side of it.
Man City keep the ball even when they are ahead
Enzo Maresca inherited a squad built during Pep Guardiola’s eight years at the Etihad Stadium, when keeping the ball became one of City’s principal methods of controlling matches.
That hasn’t disappeared under the new manager. City average 64.9% possession when they are ahead, according to BBC Sport’s analysis, continuing to keep the ball rather than routinely dropping deeper to protect a lead.
Other teams have shown a greater willingness to change their approach according to the scoreline. Chelsea averaged 51.4% possession with scores level across their opening five matches, falling to 34.5% when ahead and rising to 67.2% when behind.
Their win at Brighton provided an extreme example. Chelsea had just 25.6% possession and completed 146 passes, both their lowest figures in a Premier League match since Opta began recording the data in 2003-04.
Manchester United provide another contrast. Under Michael Carrick, they have averaged 1.5 points per game when having more than 50% possession and 2.6 when having less.
Why the possession figures need context
None of those numbers prove that teams are winning because they have less of the ball. Game state inevitably affects possession. A side taking an early lead may choose to defend deeper, concede territory and attack the spaces left as its opponent pushes forward.
City’s numbers are interesting for precisely that reason. Maresca’s side aren’t only dominating possession while chasing games. Their 64.9% figure when ahead shows they are continuing to use the ball as a means of control from a winning position.
Only City have averaged more possession than Brighton so far this season, according to the BBC analysis. That puts Maresca’s side towards one end of an increasingly varied tactical picture.
After five wins from their opening five Premier League games, there has been little reason to change course. The bigger test will come over a much larger sample of matches. Fifty games across the division can identify an early pattern, but not establish that the value of possession has fundamentally changed.
For now, the contrast is enough. Some Premier League teams are showing they can win while surrendering large amounts of the ball. City, even after Guardiola, still prefer to keep it.
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