- Arsenal still stand nine points clear of Manchester City
- City have eight fixtures remaining over the Gunners’ seven
- Pep Guardiola has a lower margin for error than Mikel Arteta
Manchester City and Arsenal remain the sole duo to compete for the Premier League, but the closing fixtures favour Arteta’s side over the Sky Blues.
Pep Guardiola has one extra fixture to catch up with Arsenal, but there is a hitch. City trail nine points and face tougher games on average than their title rivals.
City recently won the Carabao Cup final over the Gunners. However, Guardiola wasn’t confident in a league momentum shift following the Cup win.
Man City will meet Arsenal again next month as the Sky Blues will welcome their rivals at the Etihad for a Premier League fixture.
Despite the pressure building on Arteta’s side to maintain form, it looks like City are the ones who’ll have a lower margin for error this season.
Arsenal have easier fixtures on paper
Using the Fixture Difficulty Rating (FDR), we can conclude that Arsenal have an easier set of closing fixtures than City.
The FDR rates a match according to its difficulty, which usually ranges from 1 to 5. It is very popular in Fantasy Premier League circles.
City’s four out of eight fixtures will be away, while the Gunners will have to travel for only three of their seven fixtures.
Based on the number of away fixtures alone, one would be right if they expected a tougher run for City. However, let’s also take a look at the individual numbers.
| Arsenal remaining league games | FDR |
|---|---|
| Bournemouth (H) | 3 |
| Man City (A) | 5 |
| Newcastle (H) | 3 |
| Fulham (H) | 2 |
| West Ham (A) | 2 |
| Burnley (H) | 1 |
| Crystal Palace (A) | 3 |
| Average FDR | 2.7 |
| Man City remaining league games | FDR |
|---|---|
| Chelsea (A) | 4 |
| Arsenal (H) | 4 |
| Burnley (A) | 2 |
| Everton (A) | 3 |
| Brentford (H) | 3 |
| Bournemouth (A) | 3 |
| Aston Villa (H) | 3 |
| Crystal Palace (H) | 3 |
| Average FDR | 3.1 |
Man City displays a worrying away record
Manchester City have secured only 25 points in 15 away games in the Premier League this season, averaging 1.67 points per away game.
Arsenal, on the other hand, have a better home record with 38 points in 15 home games, averaging 2.54 points per home game.
The FDR supports the Gunners further with their home game FDR averaging 2.25, while City’s away game FDR averages 3.
Arteta’s side clearly hold advantages on multiple fronts. However, the numbers will only translate to reality if they manage to make good use of the opportunity.
Man City, on the other hand, will have to be near perfect and show last-minute consistency if they’d like to reclaim Premier League glory.
