With a League Cup win and a place in the semi-final of Europe’s premier competition, Manchester City are in a bit of an odd place when it comes to defining this topsy-turvy season. Though the aforementioned achievements are things that shouldn’t be overlooked or taken lightly, many would’ve expected for the Citizens to at least be contesting for the league title, and potentially an FA Cup, at this stage in the season. Due to City’s recent positive performances many have asked the question; where has this team been all season?
Defeating the supposed favourites in PSG for the continuation of the Champions League campaign and three consecutive wins in the league, prior to the draw against Newcastle, has shown the fans that City are capable of being a good team, but one that has let itself down with inconsistency.
Many would pin this resurgence of form on the return of certain squad members such as De Bruyne, Kompany, and Nasri, but that isn’t the case. While the reintroduction of said players has had an impact, it is rather the usage of vastly different tactics that has made the real difference for the Blues.
If one is to analyse Manchester City’s performances as a collective whole, one common denominator can be found amongst all of the stand-out displays; the Citizens are at their best when counter-attacking. In the best performances of the season against the most formidable opposition such as the likes of Sevilla and Chelsea at the beginning of the season, as well as PSG in recent weeks, Manchester City did the antithesis of what they’ve done in the league by holding less possession and playing on the counter; a strategy that one could argue panders to the best players and traits that this Manchester City squad possess’. If one takes into account the second leg of the PSG tie in the champion league quarter final, City were out possessed 62% to 38%, yet had 42 dangerous attacks to PSG’s 35 according to UEFA.com. This pattern of favourable results against dangerous opposition is repeated when analysing the possession stats for any game in which City were the victors, so why has Pellegrini not followed this trend more often?
The answer is complex, but it basically boils down to two main reasons: form and pressure.
When using a possession-heavy system, the team is dependent on the form of the central players in order to create quality chances in the final third. The pitch becomes one-third of its original size because City are effectively pinning the opposition into their own box, but often fail to break through the defence.
At the beginning of the season, this wasn’t an issue. Integral players like Yaya Touré and David Silva were in form and able to get the best out of Aguero and co. However, after a sustained period of lacklustre performances from Touré and Silva, the team hasn’t looked the same. The glimpses of the former fearsome light blue outfit are seen when Kevin De Bruyne has been allowed to play in the number ten role, his preferred position, but without the cohesion in the centre of the park players like Jesus Navas and Aleksandar Kolarov are forced to create the majority of the chances. The problem with the latter is that these players rely on crossing as their main creator of chances, something that doesn’t help this City side when in possession. Often times Sergio Aguero is the only forward being played, a fantastic player no doubt, but certainly not one that will be winning any aerial duels against a team that has already had time to set up in a defensive shape. This is why City have seen more success when playing on the counter – Aguero and others can more easily isolate players and be in advantageous positions after doing so rather than having to dribble past multiple players in tight spaces.
The loss of form from Touré is also slightly more significant than any other player. The big Ivorian has played such an important role for City in the past few years, so much so that his complete lack of form this season has taken a heavy toll on the team. Touré’s ability to carry and hold possession in such an important part of the pitch was always something that City leaned heavily on, but it is in this season that one could argue the Citizens needed it most. With Manuel Pellegrini looking to aid the transition towards Pep Guardiola’s possession-heavy style, the Chilean depended upon Touré to control passing tempo and possession in the offensive third as he always had, but was ultimately let down. While Silva’s loss of form could be somewhat replaced by someone like Nasri or De Bruyne stepping into the role, Touré’s involvement is something that very few midfielders have the ability to replicate, and certainly something that City did not have an abundance of.
This loss of form from key players explains why Manchester City’s possession has been so ineffective, but one still fails to understand why Pellegrini would insist with a system that clearly proved to be useless for the boys in blue. This is where the pressure aspect comes into play. The most probable answer is that of pressure from the board of directors at Manchester City towards Manuel Pellegrini in order to influence him to make changes to facilitate the incoming Pep Guardiola. Many have suggested that the treatment of manager Manuel Pellegrini by the club has been disrespectful, but this is a plan that was in motion long before the first link to City was ever penned by any transfer rumor ‘journalist’. In 2012 former director of football at FC Barcelona, Txiki Begiristain, joined City in the same capacity. Although it wasn’t always the plan to have Guardiola come in as soon as 2016, one could make the inference that once Pellegrini was given a contract extension past his original termination date, it was only to facilitate the transition towards Guardiola.
Txiki Begiristain has always been known for his positive relationship with the former Barcelona manager and many expected Pellegrini to be sacked at the end of last season after failing to defend the title against a rampant Chelsea side. But with the lack of a quality manager available that would provide the necessary nous needed in order to elevate City to the level it had strived to be since receiving the aid of Sheik Mansour, City entrusted Pellegrini with the job. The former Real Madrid manager has proven to be out of his depth, however. Pellegrini’s style has never catered towards high possession unless it was against significantly less talented teams. The inaugural year of his tenure at City was epitomized by the quick pace of his counter attacking movements in games like the 6-0 against Tottenham and 6-3 against Arsenal.
Bar a fifth place finish, this season shouldn’t go down as a failure. Pellegrini certainly hasn’t covered himself in glory after failing to successfully implement a possession based system, but the intention was an intelligent one. One that sought to eliminate some of the player turnover by weeding out those who would fit into a Guardiola-esque model and highlight those who would. Regardless of the outcome, Pep Guardiola has his work cut out for him, and although this year can be described as an underachievement, the future looks bright for the sky blues.
