City could face a player exodus capable of distorting the European transfer market if their appeal against the Premier League verdict fails and a subsequent sanction results in relegation.
A new analysis by ESPN examines what could happen if a squad valued by Transfermarkt at £1.22bn suddenly became available, arguing that City would be unlikely to receive anything approaching that figure if forced to sell players quickly.
Man City have appealed after being found guilty of 114 of 115 charges by an independent commission. No sanction has yet been imposed, so relegation remains a possible outcome rather than an established consequence of the verdict.
Why a Man City exodus could distort the transfer market
ESPN calculates that City received £248.9m in Premier League and Champions League prize money last season, compared with the £5.7m Championship clubs receive annually from the EFL broadcast agreement.
On those figures alone, dropping out of both competitions could create a gap of more than £240m before any potential impact on commercial revenue was considered.
City’s most recently published wage bill was £408.4m for 2024-25, while ESPN estimates that it could now be approaching £450m following subsequent additions to the squad.
A former Premier League sporting director told ESPN that City would “definitely take a hit on market value” if they needed to move high earners quickly. The club’s latest accounts also showed £327.6m in outstanding transfer payments, potentially adding another complication to any large-scale clear-out.
ESPN also raises the possibility of contractual disputes. Barrister Paul Gilroy KC has suggested players could potentially argue that the commission’s findings amounted to a breach of the implied contractual term of trust and confidence, although he stressed that whether such an argument succeeded would depend on numerous factors.
For now, the entire transfer scenario remains hypothetical. City’s appeal must first be determined and any eventual sanction established.
If relegation did ultimately force City to dismantle a squad valued at more than £1bn, however, the consequences could extend well beyond the Etihad Stadium, with some of Europe’s most valuable players potentially entering the market at the same time.
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