- Man City take on Arsenal this Sunday
- Paul Merson expects hosts to win
- Highlights major Gunners concern
Paul Merson has made his prediction for Manchester City’s high-stakes clash against Arsenal, and it is one Sky Blues fans will enjoy.
Merson has previewed this weekend’s Premier League fixtures, and he reckons that whoever comes out on top on Sunday will win the top flight.
As it stands, Mikel Arteta’s side have a six-point lead over City However, that would be reduced to three if the home team win on Sunday.
And with the Carabao Cup winners having a game in hand, they could draw level on points with the leaders if they also beat Burnley, in a match taking place next Wednesday.
For those reasons, Merson believes Sunday’s game will reveal the winners of this year’s nail-biting title race.
Paul Merson says Man City will beat Arsenal
Speaking to Sportskeeda, Merson explained why victory for City this weekend would make them favourites for the title.
And since the ex-Arsenal forward has predicted a win for Pep Guardiola and his team, this means he thinks his old side will bottle the title once again.
It’s just unbelievable how it has all turned around. Absolutely mind-blowing to say the least! You just look at it and go, ‘wow’,” Merson said.
“In hindsight, you can’t see anything but a Manchester City win. I saw Arsenal in the first 15 minutes against Sporting in the Champions League and told my boy it would be 0-0. You just can’t see them scoring!
A six-point margin. A Premier League title on the line. It doesn't get much bigger than this.@ManCity host @Arsenal at the Etihad Stadium next Sunday at 16:30 BST 🔴🔵 pic.twitter.com/cQ4sXqIr12
— Premier League (@premierleague) April 12, 2026
“Defensively, Arsenal are solid. If they don’t lose this game, they win the league. For City though, a draw is no good. They must win.
“I can’t see Arsenal winning all their remaining games if they lose to City on Sunday. It’s hard to watch Arsenal at the moment. But the players need to look at the bright side of it. If they beat City, the league is done and they win it. That is how they must think about this game,” he continued.
“If Arsenal go to the Etihad, sit behind the ball, absorb all the pressure and try to play for a draw, they will get destroyed by City! Even if they have a go and lose the game, it at least gives them confidence. Imagine if they sit behind the ball and lose 1-0? I don’t think it does any good for their confidence.”
He added: “I’m desperately trying to make a case for Arsenal, but I’m finding it extremely hard to do so. My heart says draw, but my head says Manchester City win.”
Merson’s prediction: Manchester City 1-0 Arsenal
Champions League distraction gives Man City the edge
As well as claiming Sunday’s game will decide the title, Merson also suggested that Arsenal’s upcoming Champions League semi-final against Atletico Madrid may help City.
After all, a European triumph would be a phenomenal achievement for Arsenal. Therefore, this will be more of a priority and a distraction to them than the FA Cup will be to Man City.
“The fact that Arsenal have to play the Champions League semi-final also gives City the edge,” he continued.
“No disrespect to Atletico Madrid, but Arsenal will feel they can win that game. If they had to pick an opponent from the remaining teams, it would be Atletico. So I believe they will take that game very seriously.
“In the end, the Premier League trophy is the one they should win. I know they haven’t won the Champions League but if they fail to win the league again this season, that is an even bigger blow to recover from.”
City’s destiny is in their own hands once again
Last weekend’s 3-0 win at Chelsea, coupled with Arsenal’s loss against Bournemouth, put the title race back in City’s hands for the first time since the beginning of the season.
If the Sky Blues beat Arsenal, and go on to win all of their remaining games, they will almost certainly win the title, especially with the way the momentum has shifted.
The Gunners would then need to also win all of their games just to finish level with City, which would mean goal difference becomes the first deciding factor.
With Guardiola’s side controlling their own destiny once more, the odds of the Citizens lifting the title are getting more promising with every win.
