- Man City and Arsenal fighting for Premier League title
- Could still finish level on points and goal difference
- Play-off match for the title a possibility
Manchester City and title rivals Arsenal could yet be forced into a Premier League title play-off game to decide who lifts the trophy, but only if one thing happens.
On Sunday, second place Man City host the league leaders at the Etihad Stadium in what could be a title-deciding showdown.
Mikel Arteta’s Gunners lead Pep Guardiola’s side by six points, but have played one more game than the Sky Blues, who face Burnley next Wednesday.
As a result, victory against Arsenal and Burnley would see City draw level on points with the leaders, and set up a frantic race to the finish line in this year’s title battle.
With the top two so close, there is still the possibility of a play-off to decide who lifts the trophy, but how would that work, and how likely is it in reality?
How Manchester City and Arsenal be forced into a play-off
The Premier League have several ways to separate two sides that finish level on points, meaning a title play-off is always improbable.
If City and Arsenal finished level, goal difference would be the first separator, followed by goals scored, points in head-to-head games, and finally away goals in head-to-head games.
However, if none of those variables can split the top two, the title will be decided by the winner of a play-off match.
A six-point margin. A Premier League title on the line. It doesn't get much bigger than this.@ManCity host @Arsenal at the Etihad Stadium next Sunday at 16:30 BST 🔴🔵 pic.twitter.com/cQ4sXqIr12
— Premier League (@premierleague) April 12, 2026
This would only be possible if Sunday’s game finishes 1-1, matching the score from September’s meeting at the Emirates and giving neither City nor Arsenal an advantage in head-to-head meetings.
Arsenal currently have a better goal difference of 38 compared to City’s 35, while Guardiola’s side have outscored the Gunners 63 to 62.
With the tie-breakers all so close, a title play-off remains a serious possibility. It would be the first in Premier League history, with the 1995/96 season the closest the title race has come to date.
That battle between Sir Alex Ferguson’s Man United and Kevin Keegan’s Newcastle went so close that tickets were actually printed for the play-off, before United went on to win the league by four points.
Arsenal have the easier run-in on paper
At a glance, it would appear that Arsenal have easier remaining fixtures compared with City. The Gunners’ last five Premier League games are all against sides in the bottom half of the table.
They face Newcastle (H), Fulham (H), West Ham (A), Burnley (H) and Crystal Palace (A). However, recent defeats to Bournemouth and Championship side Southampton have shown Arteta’s side have vulnerabilities.
Gearing up for the Gunners 📶 pic.twitter.com/wT8zAa6zUl
— Manchester City (@ManCity) April 16, 2026
And with a Champions League semi-final against Atletico Madrid to factor in, the league leaders have little time to rest in between this run of vital fixtures.
City, meanwhile, face Burnley (A), Everton (A), Brentford (H), Bournemouth (A), Crystal Palace (H), and Aston Villa (H) in the league, as well as an FA Cup semi-final against Southampton at Wembley.
Man City have all the momentum ahead of Sunday
Arsenal may still be favourites for the title, and any side would rather have points on the board than games in hand.
Yet, it’s the City dressing room that appears calmer from the outside. The Citizens have not lost in the Premier League since January’s Manchester derby defeat at United.
With momentum key as we reach the final weeks of the season, Guardiola has got his side hitting form at just the right time.
Back to back wins against Liverpool [4-0] and Chelsea [3-0] will have the players brimming with confidence, and Arsenal looking nervously over their shoulders.
Sunday’s game will be crucial, but even without a win for Man City, we could still see one of the tightest title races of all-time and maybe even a historic play-off.
