City open the Enzo Maresca era for real this weekend, hoping to move past their Community Shield humbling by Arsenal quickly.
Anyone worried about that result needs to keep in mind that City started seven players who appeared in this summer’s gruelling World Cup (not including Rodri), while Arsenal started two. For the likes of Erling Haaland, Jeremy Doku and Elliot Anderson, it was their first competitive match in more than a month. In other words, a scrimmage.
When Bournemouth visit the Etihad on Sunday for their Premier League opener, however, things get very real very quickly. So should we be concerned if City suffer another poor result? Whatever happens in these first weeks of the Maresca era, how much does it foretell his first season?
What a “bad start” actually looks like
Here’s the thing worth remembering throughout this month and next: Even under Pep Guardiola, City have opened poorly before — and repeatedly — without it costing them the league title.
Two of those seasons (2020/21 and 2021/22) were genuinely bad starts by any club’s standards, not just City’s inflated ones.
In 2020/21, City were 3-3-2 after eight matches, including a 5–2 home defeat to Leicester City and a 2–0 loss away to Tottenham. Their draws came against Liverpool, newly promoted Leeds and West Ham, which had finished 16th in the table the previous season.
The poor start left City in 9th place as late as matchday 13. But then they made the impossible possible. The Sky Blues won 13 consecutive matches and 16 of their next 17. By matchday 20, they were in first place and never looked back.
City finished the season with 86 points, 12 points ahead of second-place Manchester United, and took home the Premier League trophy.
Of course, they also enjoyed their best Champions League performance in club history, advancing all the way to the Final before losing to Chelsea.
Déjà vu all over again
The start of the following season, 2021/22, was nearly as alarming. In the Community Shield match, they stumbled to a 1-0 defeat against Leicester City, managing as many yellow cards as shots on goal (three).
City opened the defence of their Premier League title by losing 1-0 away to Tottenham (which had finished 7th in the Prem the previous season). They won their next three on the trot before drawing at home to lowly Southampton, leaving them in 5th place in the table.
Two weeks later they drew against Liverpool, and three weeks after that suffered a stunning 2-0 home defeat to 13th-place Crystal Palace.
Then, as in 2020/21, they became unstoppable. On 6th November, they won 2-0 away at United. They didn’t lose again until 19th February of the next calendar year — a string of 14 victories and one draw (to pesky Southampton again) that vaulted them into first place.
In one of the most exciting finishes in Premier League history, they battled Liverpool to the wire. The Reds went unbeaten in their last 18 matches (with 16 victories), only to come up one point shy of City.
Their 93 points were just good enough to win the second of their four-straight PL crowns.
The takeaway for Maresca’s first weeks
City are moving on from the most successful manager in their history, absorbing an overhaul of their midfield and doing it with a new head coach who has never managed at this level of expectation before. If the results are shaky in August and September, that will not be unprecedented. Judge this team in the spring.
